ECONOMICS — what this engine can make (2026-09-14)

Status: MODEL. Every number below is an estimate until the first 100 orders exist. Assumptions are listed so any one can be changed. All figures USD per month unless stated.

1. Where the anchors come from

2. Unit economics, one order, v1 St. Peter's (PrayerSong ladder)

Take rates are assumptions. PrayerSong's are not published; Divine Rev's bumps are pre-checked and not comparable.

Membership layer: 6% of buyers join at $9.90/mo, average life 4 months, fee ≈7.9% (Stripe's 5.7% + $0.22 per charge, four monthly charges) → $36.46 net per member → +$2.19 per buyer. Day-365 re-placement ignored (too far out).

Break-even CPA ≈ $40.

The scale-and-kill rule is defined once, in SPEC-PRAYER-ENGINE §9. This document quotes it and states no threshold of its own:

Contribution per buyer before ads ≈ $40.13. Day-10 read: CPA ≤ $31.40 → scale +20–30% every 3 days. CPA $31.40–$33.00 → hold, rotate creative. CPA > $33.00 → kill the ad set.

3. One brand, by ad spend (v1)

CPA rises with spend. Assumed CPA: $19 at test scale (SPEC target), $22 at $500/day, $25 at $2k/day, $28 at $5k/day. Fixed: ~$150 infra + ~$100 tools = $250/mo. Stripe carries no fixed monthly platform fee.

Sensitivity at $2,000/day: CPA $19 → ≈$59k/mo; CPA $25 → ≈$34.5k; CPA $30 → ≈$18k; CPA $36 → ≈$4.8k.

Membership stack at $2,000/day: 144 new members/mo; after 12 months ≈ 580 active members ≈ $5,700 MRR, ≈ $5,250 net. Small but it compounds and it is the only revenue that does not need a new ad dollar.

Cash note: Stripe holds no reserve by default, so no cash is tied up. Payouts land on Stripe's standard Canada schedule: 7-day rolling at first, then 2-day (confirmed, HANDOFF Phase B).

4. Time to scale (PrayerSong curve as the reference)

PrayerSong went 50k → 224k visits in 3 months on a $49 ticket with reaction-video ads. Our ticket is lower, our AOV path is similar, our creative engine is the same design.

v1 alone, month 12 run rate: ≈ $54k/mo contribution, ≈ $645k/yr, at CPA $25–28. If CPA holds at $19 the same spend returns ≈ $103k/mo.

5. The verticals (what each front adds)

Each new front is a config folder, not a codebase. The engine is the same; the audience, price and CPA are not.

Notes:

• Christian family fronts share one persona type but never one persona, one BM each or one BM family per research pass 1. The incumbent runs 3 site variants from one page for 6 years, so 4–5 Christian fronts is a proven shape, not a stretch.
• Judaism is a small, high-intent market: strong CPC, 880 searches/mo. Model it as a $4k/mo front, not a pillar. It exists to prove the engine generalizes and to own the slot before Sept 2027 High Holidays.
• Hinduism has the highest per-order margin and the largest diaspora pool (700k registered international users at Sri Mandir, growing 15% QoQ) but needs a fulfilment partner, so it is last and it is the only front with real COGS.
• Buddhism needs a Chinese-language copy team. Cheap traffic, low ticket, 6-year-old incumbent proves the category.

5a. Mecca, answered directly

Shaw's read is right that the pull is big. The research pass said NO to Islam for one reason only: our fulfilment is an AI photo, and this market buys proof of a real act. The data behind that:

• badal umrah 2,400 searches/mo global, umrah gift 2,900/mo, sadaqah jariyah 1,900/mo US at $6.08 CPC. Real demand, real money.
• 9+ operators sell Haramain gifting at $20–$349 today, several with live Meta ads and no restriction labels. Every one of them wins on video or photo proof of a physical act.
• The one operator who tried a pure digital/AI shape (Aqsa Blessings, $49.90–$69.90) is dark.
• 3 of 4 fatwa sources prohibit paid dua on someone's behalf; Hanafi rulings name AI Kaaba imagery as deception. Paying for a real act (badal umrah, sadaqah, water distribution, Quran placement) is normal and encouraged.

So Mecca is the same case as Varanasi: it works with a partner on the ground who performs a real, permitted act and films it. Product shapes that fit: badal umrah on behalf of a deceased or unable relative (the biggest ticket, $150–$349 in market), sadaqah jariyah gifts in the buyer's name with video proof ($20–$60), Ramadan/Umrah-season dua gifts for a family member travelling. No AI imagery of the Haram anywhere. Same engine, same funnel, same Stripe rail; the fulfilment worker dispatches a partner job instead of an image job. It is in the table above as Wave 3b at a $49 entry ticket; the badal umrah tier would lift AOV well past that.

6. Portfolio at scale (month 12–18, all fronts live, base case)

Three cases:

Ad spend at base case ≈ $270k/mo across fronts. Revenue at base case ≈ $600k/mo gross. Margin on revenue ≈ 33% after ads, better than the TagadaPay-era estimate because Stripe's lower effective rate keeps more of each dollar.

7. What caps this (in order of likelihood)

1. Authenticity. An r/Scams thread already exposes AI testimonials in this category. If buyers start comparing photos, refunds rise and CPA rises. The card-in-hand donor pipeline and real testimonials are the defence.
2. Meta Religion category. Divine Rev's domain was auto-classified Religion within days. Expect pixel restrictions and EU blocks on every front; the plan already budgets for it (fresh pixels, ≤4 new ads/day, CAPI with source URLs). Ban risk is what turns the base case into the conservative case.
3. Disputes. Chargeback-as-cancel on the membership is the Divine Rev failure mode. 0.6% pauses ads. Every rebill email shows the new photo.
4. Stripe reserve and payout cadence — resolved. No reserve is held by default. Payouts land on Stripe's standard Canada schedule: 7-day rolling at first, then 2-day. No cash is tied up in reserve at any revenue level.
5. Creative supply. Shaw cut the reaction-video incentive. Creative comes from produced B-roll, persona stills, and unpaid customer shares. Budget a creative refresh every 6 days; the aggressive case assumes a UGC source appears.

8. What decides which case we are in

The day-13 CPA read on v1, taken against the one rule. That rule is defined once, in SPEC-PRAYER-ENGINE §9, quoted verbatim here and in §2 above, and this document states no threshold of its own:

Contribution per buyer before ads ≈ $40.13. Day-10 read: CPA ≤ $31.40 → scale +20–30% every 3 days. CPA $31.40–$33.00 → hold, rotate creative. CPA > $33.00 → kill the ad set.

Creative rotation always comes before any offer change, and no second front opens until v1 has a stable CPA under that rule.